The mistake of those who declared the end of Big Tech M&A

When PitchBook revealed that Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple had made only 12 acquisitions through June 2026, compared with 33 in 2017, the conclusion seemed inevitable: Big Tech had lost interest in mergers and acquisitions. The diagnosis, however, starts from the wrong metric. AI M&A has not shrunk. What has changed is the way capital is competing for technology. And this shift may be the biggest transformation in the market since the beginning of the generative AI race.

Looking only at the number of acquisitions is not enough to understand the strategy of the major technology companies. They continue to commit record amounts of capital, but now prioritize infrastructure, strategic stakes, and alliances capable of securing access to the platforms that will define the next generation of the digital economy. Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are projected to invest nearly $600 billion in AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. Microsoft holds about 30% of OpenAI. Meta invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI. These are transactions whose strategic value rivals that of any traditional acquisition.

This shift also reveals a new competitive logic. For decades, buying a company meant absorbing talent, technology, and customers. Now, in many cases, securing a privileged position within the right ecosystem is enough. Minority stakes have come to offer something that a full acquisition does not always deliver: influence over the evolution of the technology while preserving the invested company's agility and reducing the regulatory cost of the transaction.

Context helps explain this transition. In recent years, growing antitrust pressure has made large acquisitions slower, more expensive, and less predictable. Cases such as the blocking of Meta's acquisition of Manus and investigations into acquihire structures used by Microsoft and Google have shown that acquiring a company can mean years of regulatory scrutiny. It is no surprise that the most sophisticated buyers have begun seeking ways to preserve influence without assuming the same level of exposure.

While attention remains focused on Big Tech, activity across the rest of the market has gained unprecedented momentum. According to CB Insights, 266 acquisitions of artificial intelligence companies were recorded in the first quarter of 2026 alone, a 90% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. Companies such as Salesforce and Databricks have accelerated their acquisition strategies to respond to the transformation driven by AI agents, while private equity funds have begun competing for companies with vertical applications, proprietary databases, and proven customer retention capabilities.

This behavior is beginning to reshape the profile of major transactions themselves. Nearly half of the value of technology deals above $500 million announced in 2026 involved AI-native companies. In 2024, that share was only 25%. In other words, artificial intelligence has moved beyond being a promising segment to become the main driver of value creation in the global mergers and acquisitions market.

The result is a clear bifurcation. On one side, a restricted group of billion-dollar transactions concentrated among a few buyers capable of investing heavily in infrastructure and strategic stakes. On the other, a much more fragmented market made up of traditional companies, specialized funds, and regional investors that have discovered that acquiring ready-made solutions is faster than developing technology in-house. The center of gravity of M&A has shifted, but the market has grown.

Brazil is following this dynamic. The country recorded $17.7 billion in mergers and acquisitions in the first quarter of 2026 alone, a 114% increase in value and accounting for approximately 65% of Latin America's financial volume. It is no coincidence that software companies, data platforms, healthtechs, fintechs, and legaltechs are among the most sought-after assets. In an environment where speed matters as much as innovation, acquiring established capabilities has become a strategic decision, not merely a financial one.

The great shift of 2026, therefore, is not the reduction in acquisitions by Big Tech. It is the redistribution of capital across the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem. When the largest buyers change their strategy, they do not pull money out of the market. They change the incentives for all other participants. Anyone who continues to measure the strength of M&A solely by the number of announced acquisitions will see a market slowing down. Anyone who watches where capital is moving will see exactly the opposite: AI M&A has never been more active.