A recent report published by investment firm Kinea Investimentos—citing data from Morgan Stanley [NYSE: MS] and Energy Aspects—projects that Brazil will become the largest contributor to oil supply outside of OPEC by 2028. The country is expected to see a production increase of 762,000 bpd, representing 60% of the world’s new non-OPEC oil offering.

Bar chart showing projected non-OPEC oil production changes from 2025 to 2028 in thousand barrels per day (kb/d), highlighting Brazil's leading increase of 762 kb/d compared to other nations. Source data from Morgan Stanley, Energy Aspects, and Kinea.
Forecasted non-OPEC oil production shifts (2025–2028): Brazil dominates the global outlook, projected to add 762 kb/d to the market—outpacing the combined net growth of all other non-OPEC nations. (Source: Morgan Stanley, Energy Aspects, Kinea)

This production surge will rely heavily on fresh capital from junior oil companies revitalizing pre-existing fields in southeastern Brazil, alongside massive investments directed toward a highly anticipated frontier known as the Equatorial Margin.

The Equatorial Margin is a continuation of the seabed that shares the same geological characteristics as the resource-rich coasts of Guyana and Venezuela. In recent years, this basin has catapulted Guyana to a staggering 30% annual GDP growth, driven largely by major offshore investments from energy giants like ExxonMobil [NYSE: XOM].

Furthermore, the 2026–2030 strategic roadmap for Brazil’s state-run oil company, Petrobras [NYSE: PBR], outlines substantial investments in both new exploration and the optimization of existing fields. These strategic initiatives have already led to significant discoveries cover in Everything about Petrobras’ new oil discoveries in South America, cementing Brazil’s pivotal role in the future of South American oil exploration.

(Editor’s Note: Context derived from Kinea Investimentos: Irã, petróleo e escassez de ativos impactos nos mercados globais).